Threat perception is an essential characteristic of a military think tank of a nation. When the threat is perceived well in time, counter measures are taken to eliminate the threat at whatever level it exists. Every nation faces some kind of threat or the other from its known adversary, sworn enemy or a hidden fifth columnist or a Trojan horse. Once the source of threat and its character are identified, effective steps are taken not only to eliminate the threat but also exterminate the unknown enemy who caused the threat. Failure to identify the source of threat and its nature may be like committing Harakiri or suicide at the national level. Indeed no nation will willingly turn Nelson’s eye to a threat that may jeopardize survival of the nation itself.
CHANGING NATURE OF THREAT
In the emerging strategic threats, the threat to the Economic Stability of a nation has assumed importance that is larger than life. Reportedly, Pakistan is bent upon destabilizing India economically and its external intelligence agency ,ISI , has adopted the Second World War vintage modus operandi of putting into circulation fake high denomination currency notes into adversary’s country. As recent as June 2009, the Reserve Bank of India had to issue strict instructions to the banks located on the Nepal border to examine all high denomination notes, specially the Rs 1,000 denomination notes, very carefully on the machine before accepting them. Unfortunately , the State Bank of India, Domariagunj was found in possession of a large number of fake currency notes printed by the Government of Pakistan. Indeed it was an economic threat to the stability of economy in India and the neighbouring adversary has been giving push after push to its nefarious economic designs against India. Of course, the threat perception of the Indian Military Think Tank was dead right and effective steps were taken in parts but the malady seems to be beyond remedy. A surgical operation in the form of sealing porous border and cancelling State carriers like the Samjhauta Express and international bus services may have to be resorted to until the hostile Pakistan learns the lesson and behaves. Of course, the threat perception exercise in the economic zone has to go on and enemy pursued relentlessly.
Pushing fake currency notes of high denomination into the enemy territory was resorted to by both Britain and Germany in the Second World War. So much so that even spies were paid in fake currency notes .This came to light at the end of the war. By then it was too late and spies could not claim their dues. Putting fake currency into enemy area was one of the methods of destabilising the enemy’s economy so that the war effort was affected adversely. Pakistan is doing precisely the same. No doubt, there is no shooting war between the two countries but the War of Minds is an ongoing exercise The high level talks to eliminate a threat of war is a mere sham to satisfy the ego of America .The International Press rightly commented : when the Indian and Pakistani leaders met in Moscow, it was more a Meeting of Hands rather than a Meeting of Minds .Thus the threat of war between the two countries may have receded for the present but it certainly exists. By the way , this latest episode in the ongoing drama of pushing fake Indian currency notes to destabilize the Indian economy took place after the much publicised Moscow Meet had taken place.One may recall that Pakistan had attacked Kargil immediately after Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee had paid a visit to Pakistan and there was much bon-homie between Mian Nawaz Sharif and Vajpayee Ji. Moral of the story is : Pakistan will always remain a military threat to India, notwithstanding backslapping of leaders. Never trust Pakistan when it comes to security of India.
EXTERNAL THREATS TO INDIA
Let us take a look around the borders, both land and sea, of India. Wherefrom is the threat to the Indian State likely to emerge? Certainly not from Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Maldives or the small coastal Arab states. Well, two major countries remain as our neighbours. China, or the People’s Republic of China, is an emerging economic giant and within a decade or two is bound to be counted as a world power. India has been having “love-hate relationship” with China. After a period of friendship, “Hindi-Cheeni Bhai Bhai”, there was a shooting war between the two in 1962 which India lost. China has been laying claim to a sizeable part of the Indian territory and that does not augur well for both. The threat of a localised skirmish over the disputed territory may not be completely ruled out. Not many analysts have perceived this threat so far.
With a view to be ranked as a world power, both economically and militarily, China has built up a large reserve of foreign exchange that is ever growing. China’s exports are visible on the shelf of every mall all over the world. China has become cash rich and has been utilising her new found wealth in shopping for latest armaments, weapon systems, ships and submarines for her blue water Navy and fighter jets for her Air Force. Her land Army is one of the biggest in the world. Numerically speaking, China ranks third in having a large standing army, navy and air force. Her crying need at this point of time is modernisation of the weapon system. Her cash register is helping her out here too. In our threat perception, it may be said that China may not be a threat to India militarily but she will be a threat to the United States of America. China will keep India engaged militarily through the good offices of Pakistan. If need be, China will fight a proxy war against India by putting Pakistan in the front line and pour weapon system and technology into Islamabad to keep India bogged down.
The Navy of a country is the flag bearer of her sovereignty and carries the message of her supremacy across seven seas. The British Navy did precisely the same in the 19th and 20 century. Thereafter she passed on the baton to the US Navy. Now the emerging Navy of China wishes to do a flag march across the oceans of the world. No less a person than an Admiral connected with the US Seventh Fleet disclosed recently that a high ranking diplomat and an Admiral of China made a proposal to him to the effect that the US Navy hold sway over the Pacific Ocean and leave the Indian Ocean to the Chinese charge. The US Admiral, however, did not give a second thought to it because America still wants to rule the waves of seven seas. A disturbing fact in this scenario is that India figures nowhere. No one considers her a threat militarily. Is there a threat to India from the new naval arrangement of world powers whenever that materialises? Indeed, if India does not go full steam ahead to have at least three aircraft carriers in the near future, she will be deprived of the claim to rank as a blue water navy and a world power. Is someone in the South Block, New Delhi listening?
The Sino-Indian scenario is neither a happy one nor a sad one. But for the proxy war that China will be engaged in with India, courtesy Pakistan, the danger of a large scale war between the two Asian neighbours cannot be perceived on the horizon. The main reason to reach this conclusion is absence of a nuclear delivery system in the Indian arsenal that may hit Beijing or Shanghai or any other major city or military centre in Northern China. When India could not move her forces into Tibet in 1950 to save the Dalai Lama and other high ranking Buddhist monks, India sending troops to southern China to fight a war in the 21st century when China is poised to be a world power, is beyond comprehension. On the other hand, China will continue to carve a niche for herself on the global stage and won’t like to be embroiled in a regional dispute. Such an involvement may tarnish China’s image as a world player of high standing. At the most China will pat the back of Pakistan and let loose Pakistani cats among peace loving Indian doves.
Since there is no perception of threat from either side on the Sino-Indian firmament, by and large, peace may prevail. Thus the painful task of extermination of an enemy may not be undertaken. Pakistan, however, may continue making jingoistic war like noises just to prove her nuisance value. When the British had carved out Pakistan, her father of the nation, Mr M.A. Jinnah had called the entity “moth eaten Pakistan” because large chunks of territory indicated by him as future territory of Pakistan was not separated from India. Over six decades after her creation, the same moth-eaten Pakistan has become an” international migraine”. That is the State where terrorism is nurtured and exported to foreign soil to spill the blood of innocent men, women and children. Many well intentioned political analysts had made a plea to declare Pakistan a Terrorist State. However, the USA did notback the idea and instead has been pouring money and material into Pakistan to the tune of trillions as she surmises that Pakistan will be the bulwark of defence against the Al Qaeida and Taliban terrorists. Pakistan has not yet delivered the goods to the satisfaction of America because many officers and soldiers in the Pakistan Army harbour sympathy for and give support to the terrorists. The Taliban and Pakistan army soldiers have jointly fought against the Soviet armed forces in Afghanistan. Moreover both are brothers in arms and brothers in faith. The bond of Islam has proved to be stronger than the bond of green back dollars.
INTERNAL THREATS
The terrorists from Pakistan pose the biggest internal threat to the security of India. As stated earlier, the Pakistani Army, notwithstanding its protestations and staging a fake anti-terror operation in Swat, has all the support and sympathy for both Al Quaeda and Taliban. Both the diplomats and soldiers have perfected the art of running with the hare and hunting with the hound at the same time. Pakistan is the corner stone of the AFPAK policy of USA. The Afghanistan-Pakistan policy of the US strategists is being tried and tested on ground now. The Americans wish to win the war in Afghanistan with the support of Pakistan. It is,however, a distant dream. When Pakistan says it has killed one thousand terrorists , not more than ten dead bodies are shown on the camera. Moral of the story is: fleece Americans and feed Taliban. The US strategists have understood this game but are helpless. They have no choice.
Pakistan may divert surplus terror outfits to Kashmir to fight a JEHAD,a religious war for Islam against infidels. India has to be doubly on guard against the probability of Taliban terrorists sneaking into Kashmir. The Indian Army should be given full freedom to deal with the situation and find a military solution to the terror problem. Should the politicians meddle with the military plans, they must be prepared to read the writing on the wall. It will b : Terror triumphs, thanks to pseudo-secular policies of politicians.
Threat Perception on time leads to extermination of enemies of the nation. Let us encourage our military think tank to think globally, perceive threats to country’s security in correct perceptive and suggest pragmatic plans to exterminate enemies of our Nation.
Mobile : 0091-9811173590. E mail : sawantg.chitranjan@gmail.com.
